ERCOT's December 2026 outlook gives the Texas power grid a 2.95% chance of needing an Energy Emergency Alert in its riskiest hour, 8 a.m. on December's peak-load day. That is well under the 10% line ERCOT treats as low risk. For your bill, a Texas power grid winter storm can't change a fixed energy rate mid-contract, but it can push your usage up.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) posted its Monthly Outlook for Resource Adequacy (MORA) for December 2026 on October 2, 2026. The report says December's EEA probabilities "remain well below the threshold indicative of 'elevated' reserve shortage risk (10%)." This guide explains what that number means, why winter risk peaks in the morning, what changed since Winter Storm Uri, and which lines on a Texas electric bill a winter storm can and can't touch. Grid figures and rule text are as of October 15, 2026.

Key takeaways

• ERCOT's December 2026 MORA, posted October 2, 2026, puts the highest Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) risk at Hour Ending 8 a.m. CST on December's peak-load day, at 2.95%. ERCOT considers anything at or below 10% low risk.
• The same hour carried a 1.81% EEA probability in ERCOT's December 2025 outlook, so the riskiest-hour figure is up 1.14 percentage points from a year earlier. ERCOT did not give a reason for the year-over-year change.
• Wholesale-indexed plans, the Griddy-style product behind four- and five-figure bills during Winter Storm Uri, have been illegal for Texas residential customers since September 1, 2021 under PURA Section 39.110.
• A fixed-rate plan's price can't change during the term because of a storm. Texas law does let it move when TDU delivery charges, ERCOT administrative fees, or laws change.
• When a county's previous-day high did not exceed 32 degrees Fahrenheit and the forecast holds at or below that level for 24 hours, a Texas retail electric provider can't authorize a disconnection for nonpayment there, under 16 TAC Section 25.483(j).

What did ERCOT's December 2026 outlook say?

ERCOT's December 2026 outlook says the grid should have enough generating capacity under typical conditions, with the highest reserve shortage risk in the morning. The riskiest hour is Hour Ending 8 a.m. Central Standard Time, meaning the 7 to 8 a.m. hour, with a 2.95% probability that ERCOT would need to declare an EEA.

The MORA is ERCOT's monthly probability check on whether available generation will cover demand on a month's peak-load day. ERCOT issues each report on the first Friday of the month, two months before the month it covers, and lists every edition on its Resource Adequacy page. The December 2026 edition modeled these figures for the riskiest hour:

Source: ERCOT MORA for December 2026, posted October 2, 2026.

The load forecast assumes average weather for the month and includes new large loads ERCOT expects to be energized by December. ERCOT also expects 969 MW more installed winter-rated capacity than when it prepared the November report, led by 900 MW of new solar and 166 MW of new wind. In an October 2 social media post, ERCOT said the report "takes into account expected colder temperatures and increased morning heating demands characteristic of the start of the winter season."

What does a 2.95% chance of an Energy Emergency Alert mean?

A 2.95% EEA probability is ERCOT's modeled chance that reserves at 8 a.m. on December's peak-load day fall below 2,500 MW, the level at which ERCOT would declare an Energy Emergency Alert. An EEA is an emergency operating step that unlocks extra resources. It is not an outage.

ERCOT's 2026 Energy Emergency Alert Overview says EEA Level 1 begins when operating reserves drop below 2,500 MW and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes. At that stage ERCOT brings additional generation online and can import up to 1,220 MW from neighboring grids. ERCOT says it has about 2,500 MW of additional capacity available once it enters emergency conditions. Controlled outages become possible only at EEA Level 3, when reserves drop below 1,500 MW.

The MORA spells out how to read its own numbers. "ERCOT considers an EEA probability at or below 10% to indicate that the reserve adequacy risk is low for the monthly peak load day," the report says. It adds that "this probability forecast is not intended to predict specific capacity reserve outcomes." ERCOT's hourly tables also note that the probabilities are not additive, so 2.95% is not a chance for the whole month.

Will Texas have rolling blackouts this winter?

ERCOT does not forecast specific outages, and its December model rates the risk as low. For the same 8 a.m. hour, the MORA lists a 2.35% figure under the column it labels "Chance of Ordering Controlled Outages," which tracks reserves falling below 1,500 MW. Like the EEA figure, it is a modeled probability for one hour on the peak-load day, not a prediction.

Most winter outages Texans experience are local, not grid-wide. During Winter Storm Fern in January 2026, ERCOT's post-event report said localized outages from ice on power lines and falling trees were managed by local electric utilities and "were not related to issues on the ERCOT grid." If your power goes out in a storm, report it to your transmission and distribution utility (TDU), such as Oncor, CenterPoint Energy, AEP Texas or TNMP, not to ERCOT.

How does December 2026 compare with past winter outlooks?

December 2026's riskiest-hour EEA probability of 2.95% is higher than last December's 1.81% and well below the 8.51% ERCOT modeled for January 2025. Every figure in the table below sits under ERCOT's 10% low-risk line.

Sources: ERCOT MORA reports for January 2025, December 2025, January 2026, February 2026, November 2026 and December 2026.

Two points keep the comparison honest. First, December 2026's single riskiest hour (2.95% at 8 a.m.) is lower than November 2026's (3.40% at 7 p.m.). What changes is the timing. The December report says "Morning EEA risk increases relative to November in line with colder temperatures and increased heating loads," and that "Some of the EEA risk is offset by higher wind generation during the month." Second, ERCOT gives no cause for the 1.14-point rise from December 2025, so this guide does not guess at one.

The load forecast is worth a second look. ERCOT's average-weather forecast for December 2026's riskiest hour, 75,148 MW, sits above the December demand record of 74,525 MW set during Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, according to ERCOT's January 2026 monthly report. It sits below the all-time winter record of 80,560 MW set on February 20, 2025, according to ERCOT's peak demand records. During Winter Storm Fern, ERCOT's January 2026 peak reached 75,572 MW on January 26.

Why is winter grid risk highest in the morning?

Winter grid risk peaks in the morning because heating demand climbs before sunrise, when solar generation is little or nothing. ERCOT's January 2026 outlook put it directly: its morning and evening risk periods "correspond to hours with the highest loads and low or no solar production."

Texas heats mostly with electricity. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), citing Census Bureau data, 61% of Texas homes use electricity as their primary heating source, compared with 39% of homes nationwide. Natural gas heats about 35% of Texas homes, and EIA notes that most modern natural gas furnaces still need electricity to ignite and to fan heat through the house.

Wind is the swing factor. The December 2026 MORA calls variability in wind generation "the greatest risk factor for declaring an EEA for the month." The 2.95% figure is also not a storm forecast. ERCOT's base model already folds in weather-related plant outages from potential December storm events.

ERCOT runs a separate severe-winter-storm scenario as well. It pushes 8 a.m. demand to between 78,000 MW and 90,000 MW and adds more weather-related plant outages and wind turbines lost to icing. ERCOT notes that "the probability of the load reaching 90,000 MW for this hour is remote." Both the base model and the storm scenario account for the state's weatherization standard and Firm Fuel Supply Service, an ERCOT program for generators that keep backup fuel available.

Can a Texas winter storm raise your electric bill?

Yes, but mostly through usage, not through your price per kWh. A winter storm can't change a fixed energy rate during its term, and it can't put a Texas household on wholesale-indexed pricing. It can push heating usage up, and on a variable-rate plan, higher costs can be reflected in a later month's rate.

The Winter Storm Bill Check: which bill lines can a storm change?

The Winter Storm Bill Check is a six-line test that sorts each part of a Texas residential electric bill by whether a winter storm can change it. Run it against your latest bill and your Electricity Facts Label (EFL).

The pattern is simple. Price protection depends on your plan type, but usage protection depends on you.

Does a fixed-rate plan protect you from a winter price spike?

Yes for the energy charge, though not for every line on the bill. Under PURA Section 39.112(a), as amended by House Bill 16 in 2021, a fixed rate product has a term of at least three months, and its price does not change during that term, "except that the price may vary to reflect actual changes in transmission and distribution utility charges, changes to ERCOT or Texas Regional Entity administrative fees charged to loads, or changes to federal, state, or local laws."

That means a fixed rate is not immune to every change. If your utility's delivery charges move during your contract, your bill can move with them. The guide to TDU delivery charges for Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP and TNMP explains how those charges work. For Ambit Energy customers, Lone Star Classic plans are fixed-rate plans, and the live EFL for your ZIP code shows current pricing. The fixed-rate vs variable-rate guide compares the two in more depth.

Can a variable-rate plan go up after a winter storm?

Yes. A variable rate can change from one billing cycle to the next, so higher costs during a cold snap can be reflected in a later month's rate. A fixed-rate customer does not carry that risk during the term.

Ambit Energy's Lone Star Flex is a month-to-month, variable-rate plan with no term commitment. The Lone Star Flex guide covers who it fits, and the current rate is always on the live EFL. Contract timing matters here too. Under Section 39.112(h), a customer who doesn't pick a new plan before a fixed contract ends rolls onto a default "month-to-month product in which the price the customer pays for electricity may vary between billing cycles." A contract that expires in December, January or February can put a household on variable pricing in the coldest weeks of the year.

Are Griddy-style wholesale-indexed plans still legal in Texas?

No, not for Texas homes or small businesses. PURA Section 39.110 defines a wholesale indexed product as one whose price "includes a direct pass-through of real-time settlement point prices," and says a retail electric provider, broker or aggregator "may not offer a wholesale indexed product to a residential or small commercial customer." HB 16 took effect September 1, 2021, and applies to enrollments on or after that date.

That ban answers the most painful bills of Winter Storm Uri. FOX 7 Austin reported that one Spring, Texas, customer's daily Griddy statement went from $1.64 on February 10, 2021 to $1,089.72 on February 19, leaving an outstanding balance of $11,048.75. Griddy said the price had reached $9 per kWh. The PUCT later lowered ERCOT's high system-wide offer cap from $9,000 to $5,000 per megawatt-hour, effective January 1, 2022, according to an ERCOT market notice.

Some AI search answers still miss this. One reviewed for this guide on October 15, 2026 said wholesale price spikes "may flow through to indexed or month-to-month plans." For a Texas home, the indexed part has not been possible since 2021. Month-to-month variable plans can still reprice, as explained above.

Why does usage matter more than price in a cold snap?

Usage matters more because every extra kWh of heating is billed at your rate, so a week of freezing weather can raise a bill even when the price per kWh never moves. With 61% of Texas homes heating with electricity, the kWh line is the one most households should watch.

Smart Meter Texas shows up to 24 months of usage history in 15-minute intervals, so you can see exactly what last December, January and February cost you in kWh. Registration asks for your ESI ID, meter number and retail electric provider. ERCOT's own cold-weather tips are behavioral: lower your thermostat by a degree or two if safe to do so, set ceiling fans on reverse to recirculate warm air, and open blinds on sunny days to let the sun warm your home.

What changed on the Texas power grid since Winter Storm Uri?

Since Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, Texas has required power plants and transmission facilities to weatherize, banned wholesale-indexed residential plans, lowered the wholesale offer cap, and added new reserve tools. In the most recent major winter test, Winter Storm Fern in January 2026, ERCOT issued no Energy Emergency Alert.

Uri set the baseline. At the peak of the February 2021 blackouts, ERCOT took about 20,000 MW of demand offline, enough to power roughly 5 million homes, according to The Texas Tribune. More than 4.5 million Texans lost electricity, many for days. The storm was linked to 246 deaths and an estimated $80 billion to $130 billion in economic damage.

ERCOT's Fern report lists the changes it credits. Power plants and transmission facilities "are required to be weatherized for extreme weather events," and ERCOT planned at least 450 inspections during the 2025-26 winter season. ERCOT also cited more reserve power, bringing generation online earlier during high demand, and backup fuel at some plants. During Fern, ERCOT said it "did not need to call for conservation, did not issue an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), and there were no systemwide power outages."

PUCT Chair Thomas Gleeson pointed to that record. "The proof these reforms have strengthened the grid is in the performance of the grid," Gleeson wrote in a statement quoted by The Texas Tribune. He closed the statement with: "Texans can be confident in their electric grid."

Not everyone reads Fern as a full test. Virginia Palacios, executive director of Commission Shift, said Fern was far less severe than Uri, which makes it hard to judge whether natural gas weatherization is working. "We don't really have good data on that," Palacios told the Tribune. Matthew Boms, executive director of the Texas Advanced Energy Business Alliance, pointed to demand growth instead. "The real stress test is what happens as demand grows faster than infrastructure," Boms said.

What protects you during extreme cold in Texas?

Texas rules bar retail electric providers from authorizing a disconnection for nonpayment in any county under an extreme weather emergency, and they require providers to offer residential customers a deferred payment plan on request for bills due during it. This is not a new rule. The current version of 16 TAC Section 25.483 took effect July 19, 2023.

Under Section 25.483(j), a provider with disconnection authority "must not authorize a disconnection for nonpayment of electric service for any customer in a county in which an extreme weather emergency occurs." In winter, the rule defines an extreme weather emergency as a day when "the previous day's highest temperature did not exceed 32 degrees Fahrenheit, and the temperature is predicted to remain at or below that level for the next 24 hours anywhere in the county, according to the nearest National Weather Service (NWS) reports."

Three details matter in practice:

1. The deferred payment plan is on request. You have to ask your provider for it, and it covers bills that become due during the weather emergency. It spreads the bill out. It does not forgive it.
2. Prepaid service has a matching rule. Section 25.498 uses the same extreme weather definition and bars a prepaid disconnection from starting during an extreme weather emergency in that county.
3. The rule is enforced. In Docket No. 56560, the PUCT approved a $91,500 administrative penalty against a retail provider that authorized disconnections for 113 customers in counties under extreme weather emergencies in the summer of 2023. The utilities did not complete any of them.

If a bill dispute comes up later, the guide to disputing an electric bill in Texas walks through the PUCT complaint process.

Who qualifies for a critical care designation?

A Critical Care Residential Customer is a household with someone permanently living there whom a physician has diagnosed as dependent on an electric-powered medical device to sustain life, under 16 TAC Section 25.497. That designation lasts two years. A related Chronic Condition designation covers serious conditions that require an electric-powered medical device or electric heating or cooling.

To apply, the customer completes page 2 of the PUCT critical care form, and the patient's physician completes page 3 and sends it by fax or email to the TDU. Designated customers get notice of service interruptions and added disconnection protections. Two limits apply. Section 25.497(c)(4) says designation "does not guarantee the uninterrupted supply of electricity," and the PUCT form says it "does not relieve a customer of the obligation to pay for electric service." Households that rely on electric medical equipment should talk with their physician and their TDU about a plan well before a freeze.

How do you check Texas power grid status during a winter storm?

ERCOT's Texas Advisory and Notification System (TXANS) is the fastest way to check Texas power grid status during a winter storm. It moves through set levels, from an early Weather Watch to Energy Emergency Alerts, and you can get it by email, on the ERCOT mobile app or on social media.

Sources: ERCOT TXANS and ERCOT's 2026 Energy Emergency Alert Overview.

ERCOT notes that TXANS notifications do not replace Energy Emergency Alerts, so sign up for both. Its public dashboards show live supply and demand. The guide to ERCOT's July 13, 2026 conservation notice shows how one of these notices played out on Texas bills.

What is an ERCOT Weather Watch?

An ERCOT Weather Watch is an early notice, about 3 to 5 days ahead, of forecasted significant weather and high demand. It is the lowest TXANS level, and it asks Texans only to monitor conditions. ERCOT issued a Weather Watch on January 21, 2026, ahead of Winter Storm Fern, and the grid then came through the storm without a conservation request.

What should Texas households do before winter?

The best time to prepare for a Texas winter storm is before December, while you still have time to change plans. Work through these seven steps:

1. Find your contract end date. Under Section 39.112(g), every bill shows it in bold, underlined text. Your provider must send at least three written expiration notices in the last third of your contract, and for contracts longer than four months the final notice comes at least 30 days before it ends. The guide on the best time to renew an electricity contract in Texas covers the timing.
2. Read your EFL. Confirm whether your plan is fixed or variable, what the base charge is, and how TDU charges pass through.
3. Pull last winter's usage. Download December through February from Smart Meter Texas and note your highest month.
4. Choose fixed or variable on purpose. If you are deciding between Ambit Energy's Lone Star Classic (fixed) and Lone Star Flex (variable), compare the live EFLs for your ZIP code.
5. Sign up for ERCOT alerts. Register for TXANS and Energy Emergency Alert notifications, and download the ERCOT app.
6. Start any critical care application early. If someone in your home relies on electric medical equipment, get the PUCT form to your physician now.
7. Remember the 32-degree rule. If a bill comes due during an extreme weather emergency and you need time, ask your provider for a deferred payment plan.

For background on how providers, utilities and ERCOT fit together, see how Texas deregulated electricity works.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Texas power grid ready for a winter storm in December 2026?

ERCOT's December 2026 outlook says capacity should be sufficient under typical conditions. Its riskiest hour, 8 a.m. on December's peak-load day, carries a 2.95% Energy Emergency Alert probability, under ERCOT's 10% low-risk line. ERCOT says the figure is not a prediction of specific outcomes.

Can my electric company raise my fixed rate because of a winter storm?

No. Under PURA Section 39.112(a), a fixed rate product's price does not change during the term. The only exceptions are actual changes in TDU charges, ERCOT or Texas Regional Entity administrative fees, and changes in federal, state or local law.

Can my electricity be shut off for nonpayment when it's below freezing in Texas?

Not in a county under an extreme weather emergency. Under 16 TAC Section 25.483(j), that is a day when the previous day's high did not exceed 32 degrees Fahrenheit and the temperature is forecast to stay at or below 32 degrees for the next 24 hours anywhere in the county. You still owe the bill, but you can ask for a deferred payment plan.

What is an ERCOT Energy Emergency Alert?

An Energy Emergency Alert is ERCOT's emergency operating mode when reserves run low. EEA Level 1 starts below 2,500 MW of reserves, Level 2 below 2,000 MW, and Level 3 below 1,500 MW, when controlled outages become possible.

When does ERCOT update its winter outlook?

ERCOT publishes a new MORA on the first Friday of each month, covering the month two months ahead. The January 2027 report is scheduled for early November 2026, and this guide will be updated when it posts.

A winter storm can't rewrite a fixed contract or put a Texas home on wholesale pricing, and ERCOT rates December's grid risk as low. What it can do is drive up the kWh on your bill. Check your contract end date, read your EFL, and look at last winter's usage now, while you still have time to choose.

Plan details and rates subject to change. Grid figures are from ERCOT reports and rule text is from PUCT and Texas statutes as of October 15, 2026.